If you are making a New Year’s resolution, you are part of a mass annual crusade. Just formally concocting that resolution makes you ten times more likely to succeed. So far, so good for self improvement spirits. But, it seems vowing to eat fewer desserts or exercise more is not enough to make it happen. That moment of decision is just a single incident embedded in habitual routine to the contrary. Four out of five people, who resolve to make healthy improvements in their life, don’t. Mark Twain demonstrates, “To stop smoking is the easiest thing I ever did. I ought to know; I’ve done it a thousand times.”

Change is not an event, but a process. In the successful transtheoretical model of behavioral change there are five stages:

1. Precontemplation
2. Contemplation
3. Preparation
4. Action
5. Maintenance.

Really, they are phases of mental readiness and levels of planning. You think about it, learn about it, make a plan and gather gear, take action, and reinforce success when you achieve your objective. Surveys say personal transformation is more probable with a system of steps.  In addition, when you are engaged in a process and make a mistake, you can get back on track by reverting to an earlier phase. It takes time to adjust your new outlook too. People without a process more often allow slips to end their commitment. Skip these steps to put this whole self-improvement business behind you as soon as possible.

Popular advice says to start with a small step or little goal. However, research shows that it is strategy, not the size of ambition, that determines success. So write your resolution, fashioning a concrete, specific statement of positive intent, such as: On March 31st I will be exactly the same weight with 10 extra pounds of jewelry on my body. Divide the goal into manageable, functional increments: I will begin a low-fat diet on January 3rd. I will begin exercising at least 10 minutes a day on January 15th. Don’t worry, no matter how well designed your mission statement is, it can be sabotaged in a very short period of time with the wrong mindset.

Goals that make you feel more in control of your life or part of a community will have a positive effect on your health and feelings.  Volunteer time at a charitable organization.  We do a lot of that in Las Vegas. Organize yourself.  For example, clean out a closet for real. Empty it out completely, insert shelves or containers to compartmentalize stuff (that ambiguous ameba of possessions adorable only to you), paint it if you have time, make it fresh and personal, then be selective about what goes back in.  If you have a hard time parting with stuff, consider this: Take a picture of it with your cell phone so the memory can be with you forever, then give the stuff to charity. Others benefit and you acquire virtue. To get out of such chores, you can clip a photo of some fabulously affluent person’s closet from a magazine, hang it inside your closet for future inspiration, and add to your stuff at the same time.

A reminder is in order. It is really not fair to devise resolutions that overtly indulge bad habits, such as: I resolve to spend more time with friends and family–on the couch watching favorite TV shows and snacking. The same goes for paying tribute to others’ bad habits: I resolve to slow down at the office so coworkers won’t be as embarrassed about their lack of production because (fill in the blank).  No permissive cliches either: I resolve not to take myself too seriously; if I do, then some one else might too. Use these transparent proposals only as a last resort.

Next, get comfortable and wait for motivation to strike you. Motivation happens after you pursue a goal and get a taste of achievement. Then you are motivated to do more; you are not motivated before you begin. So if you claim you did not do anything because you were not motivated, you can ensure a spiral of inaction that will immediately void your resolutions.

You can do the same thing with will power. You were not born with it and did not eat it in breakfast. Will power is a learned skill.  Not only can you build will power, but you must work at it to have any. Think of yourself as your own life coach or CEO. But if control of your life is not part of your resolution, like self-development or organizing your world, then this concept may not have a home in your brain anyway. Easy out!

When people get sound advice and support, they are more likely to succeed.  Warning: Acquiring inspiration and good ideas is a positive act. There really is wisdom, great info, and upbeat attitudes to be found in blogs, for example. Look at the sampling of “Best of” sites listed below. Or, you could make a definitive life choice to rely on the chocoholic to your left to help you. Not more satisfying, but more fun in the short run.

Kineda: Top 100 Lifestyle Blogs.

10 Best Healthy Living Blogs from blog.com.

A life insurance company’s top 40 healthy lifestyle blogs.

Models of success matter. Imagine your sexy new self as the love interest in Russell Crowe’s or Angelina Jolie’s next movie. Follow a celebrity or television show that inspires you.  For instance, Cheryl Forberg, the nutritionist for the Biggest Loser, writes a highly recommended blog. Of course, there is a wide spectrum of choices. You may select an example that will turn the whole thing into a satirical exercise, give your friends months of hilarity, and get you off the hook for good. Some of those animated series should do the trick.

I knew a band of psychology graduate students who decided to personally test techniques in behavior modification. They sampled a dozen or so strategies for changing habits, trying each for a recommended period of time. Human behavior was their profession and they wanted to know what worked!  Well, everything worked to some degree, because their primary purpose was not sticking to it and altering behavior. Every student bulldozed beyond the goal of a particular strategy in a very short time. Their issue was comparing the effectiveness of a variety of tactics.  So, I can say overkill is the best technique I have observed.  Be assured that none of the methods above will put you in such dedicated company.

Las Vegans have a substantial advantage. The food and luxury at our doorstep is world famous, and updated every year. For those earnest about health and well being, we have the only real 24/7 society with no excuses access to fitness clubs and other such things. Want to reinvent or “get a new start on old habits”?

Either way HAPPY NEW YEAR 2011!

Some references:

“Understanding How People Change Is First Step In Changing Unhealthy Behavior”, American Psychological Association, December 3, 2003, summarizes significant studies bounding the transtheoretical model of behavioral change (TTM).

“The key to making lasting lifestyle and behavioral changes: Is it will or skill?” American Psychological Association.

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Dan Harrington was inducted into the Poker Hall of Fame last night at the Rio. Satirically labelled “Action Dan” in contradiction to his tight strategy, Harrington has made his own mark in history and significantly influenced the development of poker and no limit holdem’, “the Cadillac of card games.” Harrington has been a champion backgammon competitor, e.g., World Cup of Backgammon 1981, Massachusetts Chess Champion 1972, and achieved phenomenal runs in poker, notably winning 6th place in his first WSOP tournament entry in 1987, winning both the WSOP $2,500 No Limit Holdem’ and $10,000 Main Event in 1995, and playing to the WSOP Main Event final table consecutively in 2003 and 2004 winning third and fourth places. That has been estimated at between $5 and $6 million in lifetime earnings.

In addition, Harrington is an attorney, stock market analyst, and real estate investor. Harrington’s brand on every professional player today, and amateurs and wannabes, is his series of books Harrington on Holdem’. These are must reads before venturing into serious gaming and are still the top selling books in the poker category on Amazon, of which Harrington is justifiably proud. My guess is every person present had read Harrington’s books, or been affected by a player who did and then read Harrington’s books.

Nolan Dalla, Harrington’s presenter, could not resist divulging juicier memoir bits such as Harrington’s regular poker game at Harvard with fellow student Bill Gates, whose products were also well represented in the theater.

Erik Seidel, who has also been a backgammon player, stock market analyst, and cohort of the Mayfair Club, a studio for gamers in New York City, was also inducted into the Poker Hall of Fame last night. Seidel came in second to Johnny Chan in the WSOP Main Event in 1988. This was the tournament featured in the movie Rounders.

Erik Seidel wins his first WPT tournament in 2008

Seidel was also at the final table in 1999. During his career he has played in tournaments at the highest level all over the world earning more than $10 million in lifetime winnings. Seidel has achieved 60 cashes in WSOP events, the fourth highest in history. Only four players have won more WSOP bracelets. Seidel, as well regarded for his good character as good play, thanked the wonderful woman he married and his supportive friend for decades, Howard Lederer.

Congratulations to the newest members of the most elite group in the gaming world.

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November 6, 2010. Rio All-Suite Hotel and Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, The Penn and Teller Theater, where entertainments of a unique nature occur.

In the second largest live poker tournament in history, 7,319 players from 92 countries paid $10,000 each to compete for a piece of $68,798,600 plus interest in prize money. The final players, known as the November Nine, were each promenaded on stage a la ringside at a boxing match, and were preceded by a young woman, who had spent way more time in the gym than her trailing nouveau celebrity, presumably so that she could heft a signpost proclaiming his seat number draw. The crowd got loud, letting loose deafening rallying cheers for the contenders. They were $29,142,637 on the hoof, the winner receiving $8,944,138, down to the ninth place finisher, the only non-millionaire, getting $811,823.

The Rio poker palor for 1500 family and friends.

That ninth place prize went to Guong “Soi” Nguyen, an amateur who did not even speak the slang. This was only his fourth live tournament. Nevertheless, he successfully maneuvered through the competition, with a companionable smile. He said he was living his dream. Soi asserted, even if he won, he would not quit his day job. Congratulations to the guy with the best water cooler story of the year.

The Mizrachi brothers made history. All four, Eric, Daniel, Robert and Michael, cashed, winning more than the entrance fee. Michael, the “Grinder,” had won the 2010 WSOP Player’s Championship for $1,559,046 in May, and was also vying for Player of the Year. Mizrachi made it through to become a November Niner. He began with a short stack and built up to chip leader with more than $60 million. Mizrachi lost the lead when John Racener won a significant chunk of his chips. Only a few rounds later Jonathan Duhamel won another ration from Mizrachi. Then, at hand number 185, Duhamel limped into the pot, disguising a pocket pair of Aces. The flop gave Mizrachi the top pair visible on the board, queens. Duhamel checked, Mizrachi bet $2 bazillion, Duhamel raised, Mizrachi shoved all in! Duhamel called, snapping the trap shut. The last two cards did not help the Grinder. Duhamel won and Mizrachi was eliminated in fifth place taking home another $2,332,992. Well, that is $3,890,000-ish just for this year’s WSOP, more than most professional players make in a lifetime. Congratulations Mr. Grinder!

Joseph Cheong, went to UC San Diego where he achieved a bachelor’s degree in psychology and another bachelor’s degree with a double major in mathematics and economics. Some time in the middle of that he learned to play poker. Yes. If I was going to design a college curriculum relating to the essential elements of No Limit Holdem’ Poker, that would be it. Cheong applied his skill set with frightening efficiency. It was difficult for opponents to figure out what he was holding. Playing a sophisticated strategy, Cheong made it to the final three, where he and Duhamel each had almost $100 million in chips when that struggle became a big-stack brawl. John Racener was left with a stockpile of about $20 million, which did not block his view of the warfare beyond.

At hand number 213 the opponents amassed the largest pot in WSOP history. Cheong raised to $2.9 million, Duhamel reraised to $6.75 million, Cheong reraised to $14.25 million, Duhamel reraised to $22.75 million, then Cheong shoved all in for about $95 million! Duhamel called making a pot of about $177 million! I needed oxygen. Duhamel had a pair of queens that won the hand. Cheong was crippled with only about $10 million in chips left. Six hands later Cheong went all in and was eliminated by Duhamel. Mr. Cheong won $4,130,049 for third place. Very well done indeed.

John Racener caught my eye early on because, as soon as he turned 21, on his birthday, he entered a WSOP Circuit Event in Atlantic City where he placed third. He must be the youngest final table player in a WSOP event. His resume now at 24, lists an impressive number of high placed tournament finishes. He has survived patches in this Main Event with modest stacks. He impressed me when he laid down ace-king hole cards, to strategically avoid confrontation over a temptingly large pot.

Racener survived to go heads-up with Jonathan Duhamel, a 23 year old professional player from Quebec. Duhamel was in college majoring in finance when he began making more money playing poker. He is known as an online, cash game player. Duhamel cemented his durable stack size when he won a notable hand against Matt Affleck. Affleck had pocket aces; Duhamel had pocket jacks. Affleck eventually went all in. After an interminable five minutes, Duhamel called, creating a $42 million pot. Duhamel cracked Affleck’s aces with a straight and used that pot to catapult to the heads-up confrontation.

November Nine Results:

3rd Joseph Cheong $4,130,049

4th Filippo Candio $3,092,545

5th Michael Mizrachi $2,332,992

6th John Dolan $1,772.959

7th Jason Senti $1,356,720

8th Matthew Jarvis $1,045,743

9th Soi Nguyen   $811,823

November 8, 2010, 8:00 p.m. Rio All-Suite Hotel and Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, The Penn and Teller Theater. Jonathan Duhamel, $188,950,000 vs.  John Racener, $30,750,000.

General Admission in free. You must stand in line to be seated about an hour before ESPN begins taping.

See the Photo Gallery and other information at the site of the 2010 41st Annual World Series of Poker

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Today Las Vegas produced the biggest veterans’ parade west of the Mississippi and the second largest in the nation. The Scintas kicked it off by singing a harmonious, rousing version of the Star Spangled Banner. The parade was dedicated to the Wounded Warriors Project. A group of those soldiers marched ahead of their band—nothing beats a military band for raising goose bumps—and was seated in front of the stage. Thereafter every military group stopped in front of the stage and formally thanked the soldiers for their service.

Wounded Warriors Color Guard

Oscar-Goodman-the-Happiest-Mayor walked the parade route with Eugene Cernan, the last man to walk on the moon. I missed him because I was surrounded by so many impressive military men and women. For example, on stage that plain looking guy, beard, black sweater, sunglasses, is the Commander of the famous Seal Team 6, standing next to a Medal of Honor recipient, and the most honored marksman (battle tested sniper) in Viet Nam. One female soldier marching in uniform, name withheld (I cannot guess why), is now 91 years old. Can you spot her?

Is it still a secret that every weekend and every holiday is a free party in the Fremont Experience? Tonight the military vehicles, old and new, will be on display, along with live music. I am hoping for some John Philip Sousa, but country and rock are advertised.

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I just drove home to eat and recuperate from hours of shared adrenaline spikes with 1500 other spectators from around the world absorbing the tense play at the World Series of Poker Final Table, which puts the November 9 to the ultimate test. In a few moments the Poker Hall of Fame will take the stage to honor its 2009 inductee Mike Sexton, a champion of the game and shrewd TV announcer for the World Poker Tour. Sexton was the only nominee to receive more than 75% of the votes for the 2009 Poker Hall of Fame. He was the first in the industry to foresee poker tournaments featuring sponsored players presented in a format that allows large audiences to follow the action. Or do we get the picture because we have Sexton skillfully unmasking strategy. Congratulations to a class act!

To follow the minute-by-minute action now, go to the Main Event Live Console.

Update: Sunday morning

Astounding! The longest Final Table in the 40-year history of the WSOP. All but the final two were eliminated at 6:00 a.m. this morning. Heads up it will be Darvin Moon, a taciturn logger from Maryland who owns no 21st century electronic gizmos, and Joe Cada, a 21 year old whippersnapper who learned solo on the internet and had no coach for these events. If Cada wins he will be the youngest ever.

What a wild night of ups and downs. I took breaks with Cada fans yesterday. You can’t miss them in bright yellow T-shirts. Phil Ivey’s forever fans, an elderly couple who knew him when he was No Home Jerome and playing under age in Atlantic City, told the Cada corps they needed Joe’s picture on the shirts. Next year. They are from a small town in Michigan and just thrilled to be here. Their part was fundamental–commandeering the theater sound level when Cada surged ahead. You can tell what kind of event is happening by crowd sounds. In poker it is an incredible harmonious crescendo of thousands of OOOHHs and cheers thundering from the first row to the lobby and into the hallways outside. In the beginning Cada would play a hand then fold. Knowing when to lay it down is crucial, but I kept muttering, “Come on kid, don’t let them push you around.” His opponents underestimated him. He sunk to only $2,000,000 in chips but had $136,000,000 at the close this morning. I want a night like that!

Darvin Moon appears to be an even tempered, unassuming guy who had everyone’s attention as chip leader when the Final Table started. His stack went up and down. However, he ended where he started with $58,000,000. That amount dominated yesterday. Tomorrow it makes Moon an underdog.

First place wins $8,547,042. Second place wins $5,182,928. Both of these guys are phenomenal. Congratulations!

Heads up starts Monday, November 9th, at 10:00 p.m. Security tells me there are 200 reserved seats; the remainder are free general admission. If you stand in line, you have a good chance of getting a seat. Once in the theater, do not leave. Rio security has inconsistent rules about letting people back in. I told them I left my feeble Dad on the seat next to me. If you see me there, say hello.

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Last weekend some friends went camping near Sandy Beach at Lake Mead. It was a guys’ get-a-way–days of water skiing and nights around a campfire with beer and roast beast. A relaxing good time. One day a herd of 50 or more Desert Big Horn Sheep grazed their way through the terrain. Nature’s rock climbing commandos at their ease. What a sight!

Photo by Steve Murphy at Lake Mead

About 200 sheep live in a territory that covers the Lake Mead National Recreation Area and a chunk of Arizona. The Desert Sheep are slightly smaller than Rocky Mountain Big Horn Sheep, but every bit as majestic.

You do not have to climb a mountain or even go to Lake Mead to see these elusive legends of the West. There is a little residential park where the sheep habitually browse. From Las Vegas, drive south on Boulder Highway. Continue on Interstate 93 to Boulder City. Turn left at Ville Drive. Look for the neighborhood playground about half a mile down the road on the right. There are usually about 20 sheep grazing and a small, hushed audience watching.

Photo by Steve Murphy at Lake Mead

The Lake Mead Area staff caution visitors to remember the sheep are not tame. They butt heads at 50 mph with 2400 lbs. of force.

Do not get too close.

Do not feed them anything.

Photo by Steve Murphy at Lake Mead

To get acquainted with Big Horn Sheep before sight seeing, go to:
National Big Horn Sheep Interpretive Center
Endangered Peninsular Big Horn Sheep
Desert USA, Big Horn Sheep
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Species Profile
Animal Diversity Web

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I signed up to spend my summer stay-cation at boot camp, poker boot camp that is, here in Las Vegas at the Golden Nugget. “Poker is war disguised as a game,” forewarns the flyer for World Poker Tour (WPT) Boot Camps. These are elite training seminars offering prep for online competition and live tournaments where staggering pots of money await. Neophytes like me enroll to enhance leisure gambling skills. Champion wannabes come to hone strategy, ready an arsenal of odds, and ponder expectations–the mathematical kind. The fantasy that keeps us focused is the record of past graduates who consistently win on the green felt battlefield.

Our drill instructor, Mike Sexton, leads a congenial team of experts, Linda Johnson, Jan Fisher, Rick Fuller and Nick “Numbers” Brancato. A winning player and trophy bracelet owner, Sexton is familiar to TV sports and travel channel viewers world wide as the canniest announcer in the industry.

Boot Camp begins at a relaxed breakfast enlivened by Sexton’s charming tales, with I a rapt audience. But I soon move from tales to “tells.” Poker players do not merely socialize, they “read” people, and toast-crunching future rivals are all around me.

Poker stars become famous in tournaments. At cash games, casino tables where anyone can sit or go at any time, professionals make a living. This Boot Camp is a cash camp. Our first lecture addressed the differences. In tournaments, with both ability and luck, a few contenders win the prize pool. The field, who fund the winners’ loot, manages escalating antes and blind bets which force marginal plays until challengers achieve the definitive short stack, zero chips, and are out. On the other hand, your whole life is a cash game with a buy back. Success depends on patiently folding secondary cards and courageously betting premium cards, while calculating the difference between your chance at triumph and pot odds, to attain a positive expectation. Math to English translation: Chips incoming! To illustrate the impact of cash versus tournament structure, assume a hand with 66% favorable probability (average lose one hand and win two). You can exit a winner in cash games. But, one hefty tournament loss makes you a bystander on the rail.

Boot Camp is a course for professionals and beginners, but the material could be overwhelming for those unfamiliar with the fundamentals. At $2,000 per course, it is best to know the basics before starting class. For two days I immersed myself in stack management, street strategy, tilt-free attitude, probability and other mental calisthenics. We did not play at poker. Bank management was covered, along with when to increase limits and pay yourself. Not soon enough for me. Some recruits, pre-adapted to the calculating mindset, already saw the world in terms of “X” to “Y” against. Warning to simple fun seekers: These warriors have a lethal advantage and the expertise to extract a sizable entertainment tax from your cache.

I had to learn poker speak to communicate. In Texas Hold’em every hole card combination (first two cards) has a nickname; every level of experience an animal label; and any jargon can become a menacing verb in the mouths of frustrated opponents. So if I start with pocket rockets (Ace, Ace) and finish a felted fish (new player with nothing but felt where my chips once sat), now I can commiserate with others who understand bad beat gasping. You suffer a bad beat when your high hand loses to a higher hand, as in life.

Playing random hands with Sexton analyzing each step created my memorable moments. I also played 20 prearranged hands in a software program which compared students’ decisions with instructors’ choices. Although I wanted to match the experts, in live play there is no such tactical comfort zone. Players must vary strategy or become “readable.” Although it is said poker is the hardest way not to work for a living, they did not sweat the optimism out of me.

It is astounding that anyone can watch the World Series of Poker at the Rio up close and personal. For free! The prize pool is the sporting life’s largest dollar happening on the planet. More money changes hands in the cash games surrounding the WSOP. With that inspiration, we campers are set lose on Las Vegas, primed to win back our tuition. And take prisoners!

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